Tuesday, April 18, 2006
The Easter Bunny sure as hell didn't do me any favors. Holy bunny buns Batman! I've said before, it's smart to stay away during F.M.O.C. days. But dumb and tired me went short seconds...I repeat SECONDS... before the huge rally today. My entire mental schedule was thrown off. I thought it was Monday. NO EXCUSE! I forgot is was Tuesday. NO EXCUSE. I spent the entire evening yesterday uploading my chart for my readership and nearly went blind trying to remember how to do it. NO EXCUSE.
I waited with baited breath as the double top pattern was confirmed at 13:05. This is exactly the setup I like to see. Plus a divergence was setting up and although it's a secret that I can't divulge here, I took it the way I always do. I've posted a cheapie 15 minute chart for you to see here tonight. I can't take the huge amount of time it takes me to upload for you my real-time chart I use to day trade. I'm just not good at that yet. Plus in all honesty I've pumped up the time frame to make it quicker for you to easily see the trading patterns presented today. By my own lack of attention I was technically right and fundamentally wrong. That's usually expensive. It certainly was today.
What a wicked rally...unless of course you were LONG. But actually as my gift to you faithful reader, what can we learn here. Study the volume today. I think we saw such a violent reaction because the whole online trading community was short. When the floor turned, little speculators like you and I were roasted and toasted.
You nor I cannot possibly know all the fundamentals. We rely on out bar charts or Japanese Candle Stick Charts to plot our profitable trading success. NEVER forget even if you fall into fatigue like I did today...fundamentals drive the commodity traders on the floor. Charts are a tool for us to use. I didn't take my own advice and stay out on such an important day. I missed the signals because I forgot to look up and down the tracks before stepping on the rails. So the train smoked me!
Now having said that, if I'd gone long, I'd be a hero. And that illustrates my point exactly. I had no business being long or short. Despite the best bar chart analysis you're capable of, fundamentals will take over and change the picture in a heartbeat. The smart position at times like today is flat the market. Do to my inattention to detail, somebody else's equity improved. I'm not about to admit by how much. I reacted as fast as I could in a stunned silence. If you look at the one minute bar chart you'll get the idea. It was remarkable. My data was leaping up 3 ticks at a time. Getting out at the market in a flash bull run is expensive. Hey, I never said I wasn't human. Just don't let it happen to you.
Monday, April 17, 2006
I'm too tired to write about this incredible profit opportunity that presented itself this morning. It took me way too long to successfully upload this graphic for you and I'm beat. I'm going to work on a special commodity trading report on how to use these patterns for profit. It doesn't matter if you're trading Bonds, Currencies, Grains or the Dow. These scream out to be traded and I'll teach you how. However good I am at trading commodities I sure have a lot to learn about making a computer work for me. I feel like a guy who wants to drill a hole but before I can I've got to learn how an electric motor works. I hate Windows!! Let's talk! Otzi@telus.net
Sunday, April 16, 2006
I am always at the right place at the right time for even more good opportunities.
I am attracting even more opportunities for my successful businesses.
I am open to receive even more abundance in all areas of my life.
I am open to receive even more spendable cash money.
I am at one with a tremendous amount of money.
I deserve even more wealth and affluence.
All the things I am seeking and even more, are now FINDING me!
I just want you to have these affirmations while you study your charts. They WILL guide your mind toward a better commodity trading system because it's all there for you each and every trading day you control your fear and greed.
I followed my 'holiday trading rule' and steered clear of commodity trading during the latter half of this past week. I've always found there is too much 'position squaring' in trading commodities as holidays approach. Easter might be considered fairly signifigant. Labor Day and Christmas are two others that come to mind. Things get skewed and it's just as likely the small day trader will get screwed.
Plus I'm still smarting from the beating I took a week ago Friday. I just couldn't get the feel for the day. The Dow ambled back and forth all day. I'd go long at the bottom of the channel where past suppport had formed and they'd run it through. I'd short it at the top of the resistance channel and they'd run it up for one 10 minute bar. It got pretty expensive. I should have turned off the trading platform and my charts but my fatigue was only superceded by my stubborn stupidity. Nobody but me is going to get that kind of behavior figured out for myself. When these feelings of frustration creep over your own day, take my advise. Shut it all down and take a break. That method will save you lots of money and of course more importantly, guilt and self recrimination.
I've been thinking about writing some reports and helpfull hints for traders who are struggling with particular issues in their trading. I notice most of the information out there is built around the idea there is some 'perfect' trader flawlessly applying somebody else's method and reading the tape without trouble. The trading commodities truth is far from that and I think I might be able to contribute more that I am. Let me know what you think.
Let's talk! Otzi@telus.net
Friday, April 07, 2006
I'm just not fast enough to get on these wicked early morning sell offs. This sort of quick turn around in the Dow and Emini S & P are set up with fear and greed. Sometimes I can't see the resistance well enough to get on board. And once the train leaves the station, it's pretty hard to get a ticket. It's been one drop dead bar after another on any time frame. My 60 minute Japanese candlestick chart looks like a dagger falling through space. We'll see if it can find some support in here.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
My excellent profitable futures trading is over for the day and surprising it was. My entry in the Dow at 11237 was based on the turnaround from the double bottom. Now as a double top formed at 11285 I pulled my stop loss up so tight it squeaked. They took me out at '83. I did expect that top to hold but sadly for my equity, I only took away the 46 ticks and now it's racing up again. Am I complaining...hell NO. They came to within 1 tick of my entry when I moved the stop up to break even. Had I been stopped out there and seen the ride up develop I know myself well enough. I would have been ticked!
That was a great ride and because it retraced the entire day's move down. Of course as I pointed out earlier I totally missed the slide south by being unfocused and on the phone. Now it's time to be pudent and turn off the trading platform and the bar charts. Heading outside to enjoy some spring in the air and spring in my step.
They just came to within 1 tick of my stop loss at 11237. One tick. The big Dow rallied up and as I watched it back away from 11190 I thought the sell off would continue. I pulled my stop loss up to breakeven...fast...perhaps too fast.
What a vicious sell off in the index markets over the past half hour. And I just sat there and watched while I booked with a seminar I want to take on the weekend. My God, the bars just kept sinking lower in the S & P and the Dow. I'm going to run and check into the bond and currency markets just to find some solace. Now the timing of the retracement will be critical. Wait for the turn Otzi...wait for the turn. Only fools rush in!
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
That doesn't happen too often! With today's online commodity trading data feeds, things are more stable than they used to be. Luckily. But the sell off this morning was so swift I lost my data feed for a time and I just couldn't get the feel or an entry point. When the feed goes down, or better said, seems to be lagging, it's just wise to stay put and stay flat. My chart was gapping and jumping around two and three ticks at a time. When things settled down taking the retracement trade seemed to be the best method. A double bottom presenting itself timed at roughly 11:40 and I entered off that long at 11124. As is my way I pulled my stop up to breakeven but got faked out earlier than I'd hoped at 11249. I succumbed to greed and tucked my stop loss too close. I gave the Dow no breathing room. There things sat as the lunch crowd departed the building. Now I see a renewal of the rally and I'm sidelined during this breakout, leaving huge amounts of a profitable commodity trade on the table.
Monday, April 03, 2006
Packing it in! for the day. I overslept the opening in Dow Jones electronic trading while I try to adjust to the new Daylight Savings Time change on the weekend. The mind is slow to drop a habit and I blinked the eyes open exactly to the minute of normal which is of course an hour too late now. I missed that great rally the first hour. Spent the rest of the early monring getting chopped to bits as you can see on your charts. I've given somebody else too much money today so off goes the Emini trading platform and saving all charts as we speak. It's the only safe thing to do.