Tuesday, March 30, 2004
I see in both the overnight action and this morning that the Bonds are rallying slightly just as I expected. I honestly believe we've seen the highs and we'll thrash around up here for months perhaps. I will be a scalpers market with a half point here, and a point there. We'll be building a downside bais until after the Presidential election in November. Of course when interest rates begin to rise we need to be short and stay short. It could be a great run given my memory of the early 80's when here we went from 8,9 and 10% to a high of 22% in a matter of two years. This could be the campaign of my lifetime seeing as I've missed so many other big ones, most recently the beans to date. Copper too for that matter, but I rarely ever trade copper anyway. With the beans I just wasn't paying attention. On the matter of paying attention, after the look of yesterdays buying off support in the Wheat, it's looking like the time to get long, perhaps for a long hall. That was a very bullish day, at least in the front month. Maybe I'll pick up something just over yestarday's high. Still short the cocoa from 1490, but it doesn't look like for much longer. It doesn't seem to want to die and is trading at 1485 right now.