Friday, December 12, 2003
Every newsletter I read is on and on about that run-up in Corn yesterday. No excuses. For me, my error was not taking the second position off when there was no followthrough to the downside. My mistake and I deserve the loss given my reading of the tape.
Thursday, December 11, 2003
I feel like I deserve an apology! The bile is right up in my throat. I hate that feeling!
In the last minute of trading the sleepiest market in the grain complex this week, the locals ran the stops into the highs of the last few days of trading in March Corn. Sneaky bastards.
I should have seen it coming. I mean the price range all for the past two weeks has been miserable and tight. My guess was that the resistance at 253 was getting too strong to penetrate. The rest of the complex has been sagging, even with the head Chinaman visiting North America. None of the rumors of Chinese buying Beans has panned out all winter, in fact the cancellation of one order recently sent the beans plumeting...but that's fundamental stuff and only good in news stories. I wonder what the reports will say about this bullshit caper this morning.
But today...everything looked good for the short positions panning out. I mean Beans down 20 cents, Wheat down a dime...all after the USDA reports this morning. But the corn held. I should have read that as strength. Of course that's hindsight after the floor creamed all the shorts in 60 seconds flat. God it was fast! Funny...money NEVER accumulates in the account that quick. If it did you'd grab it too soon and see coninuation like Cocoa has done for awhile.
I added another short at 246 1/2 just like the plan...waiting until the lows and double bottoms were taken out. When it found and held support at 245, it would have been a good time to take the $300+ profits. But here's the catch. Take the quickie (as if...this has struggled all week...first clue) or stay with it projecting the goal of 233, as worth waiting for. Well, not being a daytrader, you stay with it. Especially when it spends the entire morning on-side.
At the close...and I mean literally in the last 60 seconds, they slammed it up to 253 and my nice little profit evaporated into a $405 loss right before my eyes. The second position (called my continuation trade) didn't continue and ate profits alive from the first one . You can bet I wasn't filled at my trailing stop either but right at the high freakin' tick. I'd love to have access to a 'time and sales' run to see how many were filled right there. That's one of the reasons I miss my old 'personal touch' broker sitting at his desk. He could pull up those reports and it always made for interesting study. The he'd phone the floor for me only to be told "so sorry...fast market...too bad...not held". You know the drill. I know time and sales is still still available for those deep pocketed traders paying 'real-time' fees to the exchanges. Too rich for me. I've heard the same story too many times to need a print out for God's sake.
Then they back it off 2 cents to close at 251 after cleaning house with all the tight stopped shorts. Now comes the fun. Will they poke it through the highs tomorrow, drawing in new longs, only to slam it down next week. Or maybe it will just sag back down to support again.
This is where the rubber meets the road. The worst thing that can happen now, after a loss like that, is missing a false breakout to the upside followed by the drop. When you're in the position early on a good fill and see this kind of manipulation, it's often enough to keep you away for awhile. That spells missing the move you've been planning for all this time. The chart proves you right, your account says you were too early. What an advantage these floor traders have in this business. You've got to be really good at this game to stay in the flow. That's the second loss this month for me in Corn. Thanksfully my Cocoa and Sugar trades are keeping me ahead. Getting shook out of the Canadian $ at break-even meant I've missed some nice equity for December. Things will be getting thin soon so it's almost time to slow down. I must check the volume for today and see just how thin today was. Could be an interesting additional item. God, I hate stop running! What an advantage...to literally SEE where everybody is in the computers. Wow. No wonder all those Chicago boys live in big houses and have nice boats.
My mistake here was after putting on a nice entry at 251 1/2 last week, followed by todays continuation at 246 1/2 below the double bottom lows, there was no continuation. Read it right there, Otzi. The support at 245 held, no followthrough despite the Wheat and Beans getting soaked. My second entry stalled for three hours. That re-states the old rule. When a position stalls and doesn't move in your direction, treat it the same way as moving against you. That it did my friend...that it did. Greed gets the better of us all!
Thursday, December 04, 2003
Well, this is finally the day. My goal was to begin on Veteran's Remembrance Day which I hope you know is Nov. 11th each year. I returned teary-eyed from the Memorial Service after seeing a gifted Marching Pipe Band and reflecting on my Father and others who sacrificed to secure for us the freedoms we enjoy to build a successful and individual life the way each of us sees fit.
I became confused trying to decide on a blog hosting platform on which to host/post my trading observations. Some day I should create a course on how to pick and use a simple weblog provider. The "Blogger" service I've chosen will help me keep my focus on the message and less on the medium. It may prove too basic for what I eventually want to do, but I had to start!
Simple is the key here. I've spent the past 19 years as a student of markets and succumbed for years to the lure on the various indicators developed by brains much bigger than mine. Now this generation of traders suffers from 'indicator-itis' made available to anyone with a high powered computer and an elegant charting software package.
The objective is to uncover highly profitable trading opportunities which exist almost each and every day. There is a bullish to bearish and back to bullish ebb and flow to the markets that move in a predictable and tradable manner. If we can stay focused and not let our own psychcology beat us at the game, there is an almost unlimited profit potential available in this best of all businesses.
But the markets are designed to suck vast sums of money from the accounts of the uninformed dreamers. How else do the 'locals' and market makers in New York and Chicago and earn 6 figure incomes. So my goal is to help the reader/student/trader learn to use simple powerful tools to get the edge you need to grab other people's money before they take yours!
The commodity futures trading markets will show you every day how to capture huge profits easily if you know how to look at price. My goal is to teach you how to do just that. I admit to having selfish motives as well. I need the discipline of keeping my study log in better shape. There's a good chance if I know there are folks out there in traderspace with a will to win, I'll do a better job of keeping of top of the action.
This is not a trading advisory. It is a log of my own picks from what I see in the charts. I believe there is a real-time fortune to be made trading commodities but I couldn't deal with the responsibility of deciding for others how to speculate. Become your own market wizard.
It's taken me 19 years to get to this place. All I can offer you dear reader is the possibility of a shorter trip. But my unique experience and past performance do not guarantee and may not produce future profitable results. All markets and opportunities have inherent risks and there is always potential for loss. Sort of like life itself.
Over the weekend I'll post some of the trades that caught my eye since mid November. I still have to teach myself how to screen shot my charts and post them somewhere. Until then feel free to use the entry/exit points and study your own charts. In fact that's all I may ever do. There's no point in spoon feeding you. You don't learn much until you do it for yourself.